You want to follow the herd. It’s natural. Do you remember the 1999 internet bubble? I got so frustrated hearing about my neighbors investing in Level 3 Communications, I thought I was the dumbest person on the block. I bought some Level 3. I made a little money, but I was too chicken to ride it out. I’m glad I didn’t.
Yes, some people escaped that bubble with fortunes intact, but most were swept away. The same can be said of house flippers and land developers in Las Vegas during the middle of the 2000’s. I remember feeling so envious of all these people making quick bucks left and right. What did I do? I went to Baltimore. I flipped a house and lost my ass. Thankfully I got out before the meltdown and I didn’t lose my entire net worth.
So, now, I look at my industry: apartments. Everybody loves apartments as an investment right now. The yield, the safety, the myth that people can’t afford houses anymore. I remember fretting about Omaha surpassing $1.00 per square foot rents in the late 2000’s. We’ve blown through that number.
Downtown is hot. Midtown is hot. But someone is going to be the last one in and they’re going to be late to the party. They will overpay for land, underestimate costs, and underestimate the depth of the market at an affluent level of rent.
It’s frustrating. You know people are making a lot of money right now. But you also have a sick feeling in your gut that everything is being propped up with artificially low interest rates. I went to a conference and heard they are paying 4.82% cap rates in Dallas.
Are we there? Is this Japan with a perpetual zero interest rate policy?
Everybody repeats the same cliche that real estate is about location, location, location. Here’s what they don’t say: real estate is also about price. You can have the best corner in the world, but if you pay too much for it you will dig yourself a hole that will take a generation to extricate yourself from.
We have to take risks as developers. You can’t make money without taking a risk. But you can’t follow the herd. Sheep get slaughtered as the saying goes. Lemmings head blindly over the cliff.
Farnam Street blog has an outstanding transcript of a television interview in India featuring Warren Buffett and Ajit Jain. Everyone needs to read it and watch the interview. It is pure gold.
Ajit: The discipline to say no, if you have that and you’re not willing to let people steamroll you into saying yes. If you have that discipline, that’s more than 50 percent of the battle.
Warren: Don’t do anything in life where, if somebody asks you the reason why you are doing it, the answer is “Everybody else is doing it.” I mean, if you cancel that as a rationale for doing an activity in life, you’ll live a better life whether it’s in the stock market or any place else.
I’ve seen more dumb things, and sometimes even illegal things, justified (rationalized) on the basis of “Everybody else is doing it.” You don’t need to do what everybody else is doing. It’s maddening, during the Internet craze when the bubble was going on.
You have to forget about all those things. You have to do what works, what you understand, and if you don’t understand it and somebody else is doing it, don’t get envious or anything of the sort. Just go on and wait until you find something you understand.”